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You said:
I will assume that the trump presidency is a disaster. I want to know whether the ascedency of a trump is probable under a parliamentary system as in england or a collegial system as in switzerland
ChatGPT said:
Your assumption that a Trump-like presidency is a disaster sets the stage for analyzing whether a similar political figure could rise under different political systems. Let’s compare the likelihood of such a figure emerging in a parliamentary system like the UK and a collegial system like Switzerland.
1. The UK’s Parliamentary System
- The UK operates under a Westminster parliamentary system, meaning the executive (Prime Minister) is chosen by and accountable to the legislature (Parliament).
- Party discipline is strong, and leaders rise through internal party mechanisms, which limits outsider populists from directly appealing to the public.
- The First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) electoral system tends to favor major parties and discourages fragmented populist movements.
- However, populist figures can still emerge within parties (e.g., Boris Johnson) or influence them from outside (e.g., Nigel Farage’s role in Brexit).
- Could a Trump-like figure rise?
- Possible, but less likely due to party discipline and the need to win over MPs rather than the general electorate.
- A Trump-like figure would likely need to take over an existing major party rather than rise as an independent outsider.
- The monarchy as a stabilizing institution and entrenched civil service also act as guardrails.
2. Switzerland’s Collegial System
- Switzerland has a collegial executive system, where a seven-member Federal Council collectively governs, rather than a single president or prime minister.
- The consensus-driven and federalist structure diffuses power, making it extremely difficult for a single leader to dominate the political landscape.
- Switzerland’s system of direct democracy (frequent referendums) allows populist ideas to gain traction but prevents individuals from accumulating too much power.
- Could a Trump-like figure rise?
- Highly unlikely, because the system does not concentrate power in one person.
- A charismatic populist could influence policy via referendums but would struggle to dominate the executive branch.
Conclusion
A Trump-like figure is far more likely to emerge in a Westminster-style system than in Switzerland’s collegial model. However, even in the UK, party structures and parliamentary accountability make it harder for a populist outsider to take over compared to a presidential system like the U.S. Switzerland’s decentralized, collective governance almost entirely prevents such figures from dominating its politics.