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The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability, knowledge, or experience in a particular area overestimate their competence. Meanwhile, those with high competence may underestimate their relative ability, assuming that what is easy for them is easy for others as well.
Origin
It was first described in 1999 by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, who conducted experiments showing that people who scored in the lowest percentiles on tests of humor, grammar, and logic tended to rate their own performance much higher than it actually was.
Key Points
- Incompetence leads to overconfidence: People who lack skill in a domain often lack the metacognitive ability to recognize their deficiencies.
- Skilled individuals may underestimate themselves: Experts often assume that others find things as easy as they do, leading to a different kind of misjudgment.
- Learning reduces the bias: As individuals gain more knowledge and skills, their self-assessments tend to become more accurate.
Graphically
It’s often represented as a curve:
- Initial Peak (Peak of “Mount Stupid”): When someone knows a little and feels very confident.
- Valley of Despair: When they realize how much they don’t know.
- Slope of Enlightenment: As they learn more, confidence begins to rise again, but more realistically.
- Plateau of Sustainability: Competence and confidence reach a balanced level.
In Practical Terms
- A beginner who reads a few articles on a medical topic may feel confident enough to challenge doctors.
- A novice programmer may feel ready to build complex systems after finishing a tutorial.
- A real expert may downplay their expertise because they’re aware of how much they don’t know.
It’s a cautionary concept — reminding us to stay humble when we’re new to something and to recognize the value of experience and reflection.