ChatGPT said:
The success rate of mass protests varies significantly depending on how success is defined (e.g., achieving stated goals, changing policies, or influencing public opinion). Studies and analyses of protest movements provide insights into their effectiveness:
Key Research on Protest Success Rates
1. Global Perspective
- Chenoweth and Stephan (2008):
A landmark study in Why Civil Resistance Works analyzed 323 violent and nonviolent movements from 1900 to 2006.- Nonviolent Movements: Success rate of 53%.
- Violent Movements: Success rate of 26%.
Nonviolent protests were more effective because they attracted broader participation and increased political and economic pressure on regimes.
2. Post-Cold War Era
- Nonviolent Action Post-Cold War:
A study by Erica Chenoweth showed that from 2000 to 2019, the success rate of nonviolent movements decreased to 30%. This decline is attributed to:- Repressive tactics by governments.
- Fragmentation within movements.
- Challenges in sustaining momentum.
3. Single-Issue Campaigns
- Research on specific issues, such as civil rights, environmentalism, or labor movements, often shows mixed results:
- Labor Movements: Strikes and labor protests have a moderate success rate, typically 20-50%, depending on the industry and region.
- Environmental Protests: Often have delayed or partial success, such as the halting of projects (e.g., Keystone XL pipeline).
4. Global Survey Data
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2020):
Between 2010 and 2020, there were nearly 1,200 significant protests in over 130 countries. Of these, about 25% achieved partial or full success, while the majority either failed or saw no immediate change.
Factors That Influence Success
Increase Success
- Clear and Achievable Goals: Movements with focused demands (e.g., civil rights, anti-apartheid) are more successful.
- Nonviolence: Demonstrably increases the likelihood of success.
- Mass Participation: Broad and diverse participation amplifies legitimacy and pressure.
- Media Coverage: Sympathetic media can garner wider public and international support.
- Support from Elites: Defections or support from influential figures, including politicians, can sway outcomes.
Decrease Success
- Repressive Regimes: Authoritarian governments often suppress protests with force.
- Lack of Unity: Movements with fragmented leadership or competing agendas are less effective.
- Short-Term Engagement: Movements that cannot sustain momentum often lose visibility and influence.
- Global Disregard: International protests often lack leverage unless tied to significant political or economic costs.
Overall Ratio of Success
From existing research, the broad global ratio of protest success can be estimated as follows:
- Full Success: ~25-35%.
- Partial Success: ~20-30%.
- Failure or No Immediate Impact: ~40-55%.
This ratio underscores that while protests often face significant challenges, they remain a critical tool for driving change, especially when other avenues (e.g., elections, institutional reform) are inaccessible.
*4o++++++++