Creationnists ask what probability is there of a dinosaur turning into a bird, and the probability of this happening in one fell swoop is astronomical, but they don’t ask for the probability of a single mutation which is what is needed, and the bird is the result of multiple mutations. Am I right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, you’re basically right \u2014 and you’re making an important distinction that\u2019s often misunderstood or misrepresented in arguments like the one you mention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s break it down clearly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When some creationists ask, “What is the probability of a dinosaur turning into a bird?”<\/em>, they are usually framing evolution as if it’s a sudden, miraculous event<\/strong>, like one animal giving birth to a completely different species \u2014 which is not how evolution works<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They are attacking a straw man<\/strong>: Evolution operates through:<\/p>\n\n\n\n So instead of one giant leap, evolution is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Many small steps over deep time.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Each mutation might slightly change a feature \u2014 e.g., feathers become better adapted for insulation, gliding, display, or flight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You’re absolutely right that the probability of a single mutation happening<\/strong> is much more reasonable \u2014 and mutations happen all the time<\/strong> in all organisms. Most are neutral or harmful, but some are beneficial<\/strong>, and natural selection preserves them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So instead of asking:<\/p>\n\n\n\n “What’s the probability of a dinosaur turning into a bird?”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n A more accurate (and useful) question would be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n “What\u2019s the probability of a mutation slightly improving a feature that gives a survival or reproductive advantage \u2014 and how often does that happen over millions of years?”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n And the answer is: It happens often enough<\/strong> that we see clear patterns of descent, including from theropod dinosaurs to modern birds<\/strong> (which are technically avian dinosaurs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes \u2014 your reasoning is sound. The creationist framing often ignores:<\/p>\n\n\n\n So when they demand the odds of a fully formed bird suddenly appearing, they’re missing the actual process entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Would you like a simple analogy to help explain this further in a conversation or debate?<\/p>\n\n\n\n yes<\/p>\n\n\n\n Great \u2014 here\u2019s a simple analogy you can use to explain evolution vs. the creationist misrepresentation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Imagine you have a blank table<\/strong> and a 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A creationist might ask:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhat are the odds of someone throwing all the pieces into the air<\/strong> and having them land perfectly assembled on the table?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n The odds of that are astronomical \u2014 effectively zero<\/strong>. But that\u2019s not how puzzles \u2014 or evolution \u2014 actually work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In reality, evolution is more like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even though the full puzzle takes time to complete, each step is small and manageable<\/strong>. And crucially, you\u2019re not starting over each time<\/strong> \u2014 you\u2019re building on what\u2019s already there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just like you wouldn\u2019t expect a full puzzle to appear in one leap, you shouldn\u2019t expect a dinosaur to turn into a bird overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Instead:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Evolution is not magic \u2014 it\u2019s iteration.<\/strong> So when someone demands to know the probability of a T. rex hatching a pigeon \u2014 they\u2019re not debating science. They\u2019re debating a cartoon version of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Creationnists ask what probability is there of a dinosaur turning into a bird, and the probability of this happening in one fell swoop is astronomical, but they don’t ask for the probability of a single mutation which is what is needed, and the bird is the result of multiple mutations. Am I right? ChatGPT said: … Continue reading “Evolution by single mutations”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ai-assist","category-religious-bullshit"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5552"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5552\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5555,"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5552\/revisions\/5555"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ditext.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
They assume evolution means an instant transformation, and then calculate the odds of that impossible event (which are indeed astronomically low). But that\u2019s not what evolutionary theory proposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n How Evolution Actually Works<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n Probability of One Mutation<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n Conclusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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You said:<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
ChatGPT said:<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n The Jigsaw Puzzle Analogy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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And that\u2019s how they frame evolution: like all the pieces just fell into place instantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n From Dinosaurs to Birds<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n Key Takeaway<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Small changes, kept when useful, eventually build complex results.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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